Sunday 10 November 2024
Islamabad (News International. DW New. November 10, 2024) While America's long-time allies Israel and Egypt have celebrated Donald Trump's upcoming return to the White House as American President, Qatar, Iran, and the United States and Israel have opposed it. Other members of the Iran-led "Axis Resistance" have diplomatically expressed "political indifference" to the development.
According to political observers, there is no doubt that Trump is keen to continue his unique approach to Middle East policies. "Trump likes to portray himself as a dealmaker," Neil Quilliam, a Middle East and North Africa expert at Chatham House, a London-based think tank, told DW.
They will want to pick up where they left off.
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Quilliam believes Trump has three major political plans for the Middle East. First, they will focus on ending Israel's conflicts with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
However, an end to the war in Gaza, the establishment of a future administration for the Gaza Strip, and the possible creation of a Palestinian state are likely tied to Trump's second vision for the Middle East.
"Trump would like to breathe new life into the Abrahamic covenants and increase the number of states that have normalized relations with Israel," Quilliam said, adding, "Saudi Arabia is his main target." The goal is but Riyadh will resist unless Trump makes a long-term deal on a plan to establish a Palestinian state.
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The Abrahamic Accords were a series of US-brokered agreements between Arab countries and Israel that were initiated during the first Trump administration. Under the same agreements, Israel normalized diplomatic relations with Morocco, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Sudan in 2020 and 2021.
Saudi Arabia was also on track to normalize relations with Israel in 2023.
However, these negotiations came to a halt when Hamas launched deadly terrorist attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, starting the Gaza war, which has now been over a year old.
Later, Israel's conflict with the pro-Iranian group Hezbollah also started in Lebanon.
Burjo Ozjelic, a geopolitical risk analyst and security expert in the Middle East at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, said that while Trump will try to project American power and his particular "superiority" as a dealmaker, demonstrate, then "it is very likely that they will find the post-October 7 Middle East more challenging than before."
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'Many Gulf Arabs' like Trump's personality
According to Kristen Smith Dewan, a senior scholar at the Gulf Arab States Institute in Washington, most Gulf Arab citizens support the Biden administration for the war in Gaza and the ongoing Israeli military campaign that has killed thousands of Palestinians and Lebanese civilians. considered responsible and this situation has cooled the enthusiasm for the United Arab Emirates that was once found in the United Arab Emirates.
In the same United Arab Emirates, many people supported Trump's Republican Party victory in 2016, but this is not the case in 2024.
But he thinks it's possible that when Trump returns to the White House in January, his personality could turn the tide. According to him, "Trump's popularity among many Gulf Arabs is derived not only from his foreign policy but also from his personality."
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Ashraf al-Ashry, an Egyptian Middle East political analyst, told DW that he "sees better relations between Trump and Arab countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan because of the political chemistry between Trump and Arab rulers." Expect to see."
How will Trump handle Iran?
However, this "political chemistry" does not currently extend to America's regional enemy, Iran, as well as Iran-backed "Axis Resistance" factions, including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Yemen's Houthis, and Iraq. Members of Shia groups are included.
"Trump has taken a tough stance against Iran-backed armed groups, and if US personnel or their interests in the region were targeted, there would be a potential risk of heavy casualties," Barjo Ozjelic said.
But she doesn't believe Trump will be inclined to drag the United States into a direct conflict with Iran, even as military tensions between Israel and Iran escalate.
In addition, according to Chatham House expert Quilliam, making a deal with Iran will be Trump's third major political goal.
According to him, "Trump will apply more pressure to do this, knowing that Iran is already weakened and that the dream of a major Israeli strike against its leadership and nuclear program will make it more flexible and Thus, Iran will be willing to make a great deal.
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Koelm's view was echoed by Ozjelik, who said, "A tougher approach is more acceptable to Republicans, with Israeli military strikes against sensitive Iranian targets such as nuclear facilities or energy infrastructure." Support is also included.
However, she also believes that Trump "may consider de-escalation talks with Tehran, if only to present himself as someone who has done the unthinkable." "Do what no American president has done before, and that is to achieve peace in the Middle East."
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